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 Position: Home > issue > The 3rd Issue (November 25, 2020)
Modeling the Epidemic Trend of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in China
Category: Commentary
Author: Mingwang Shen, Zhihang Peng, Yanni Xiao, Lei Zhang

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COVID-19 Epidemic Trend

A new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with infection by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally since December 2019. By 232 September 2020, more than 200 countries worldwide have reported about 30 million confirmed cases and more than 950,000 deaths.1 China has reported a total of 85,307 (including 2,758 imported) cases and 4,634 deaths.2

To control the dispersal of COVID-19, the Chinese government initiated an unprecedented lockdown in Hubei province and raised a national public health response to the highest state of emergency: level 1 of 4 levels of severity in the Chinese Emergency System on 23 January 2020. People were encouraged to stay at home as much as possible, and all public events and gatherings were canceled or delayed, which significantly reduced social contacts in public spaces (e.g., public transportation, supermarkets, offices, etc.) but increased person-to-person contacts in households.3 At the same time, the usage rate of face masks was high in public spaces (consistently >90% during the time of lockdown4). The duration for detection and diagnosis of infected individuals was shortened, and consequently diagnosed individuals and those who were in close contact with them could be isolated in a timely manner.5 With strict social distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions, China has contained the spread of COVID-19 and reopened its economy since early April. The successful experiences in China will provide important evidence and scientific insights for other countries that are amid the pandemic.


Cite this article

Shen, M., Peng, Z., Xiao, Y. and Zhang, L. Modeling the Epidemic Trend of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in China. The Innovation 1 (3), 100048 (2020). doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100048





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