Lagged effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal variation in global land precipitation
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GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
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PUBLIC SUMMARY
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The response of global land precipitation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is delayed by about one year.
Positive PDO phases have a stronger effect on precipitation changes.
PDO in each season tends to influence land precipitation in the following season.
The lag is driven by the PDO persistent influence on the atmospheric circulation.
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ABSTRACT
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, modulates the global temperature and precipitation. While previous studies have shown a negative relationship between the global precipitation and the PDO, the time-delayed feature of this relationship remains underexplored. Here we investigate the lagged effect of the decadal variations in the PDO on the global land precipitation using cross-correlation at multiple scales. We find that there is a delayed response of precipitation to the PDO, with the regional correlation peaking at a certain delay and gradually decreasing with increasing lag time. We note the asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative PDO phases on precipitation. Seasonal analysis reveals that the PDO is related to land precipitation during the subsequent season relative to the rest of the year, with the highest correlation occurring in the boreal winter. The delay in response is likely due to the constant SST forcing of the PDO to the atmospheric circulation. This study highlights the lag duration of the PDO–precipitation relationship, potentially enriching our understanding of this relationship and enhancing climate predictions on decadal timescales. -
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REFERENCES
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Liang L., Liang S., Li L., et al., (2023). Lagged effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal variation in global land precipitation. The Innovation Geoscience 1(3), 100034. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100034
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Liang L., Liang S., Li L., et al., (2023). Lagged effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal variation in global land precipitation. The Innovation Geoscience 1(3), 100034. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100034
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Figure 1.
Decadal variation in global mean precipitation over land and cross-correlation function with PDO index from 1901 to 2021
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Figure 2.
Cross-correlation between local smoothed precipitation anomaly and PDOI
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Figure 3.
Spatial patterns of lagged precipitation anomalies over land at different PDO phases from 1901-2021
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Figure 4.
Seasonal cross-correlation between local smoothed precipitation anomaly and PDOI
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Figure 5.
Spatial pattern of surface pressure and 100-m wind speed based on PDOI in DJF and JJA
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