Global drought-flood abrupt alternation: Spatio-temporal patterns, drivers, and projections

Zeqiang Chen; Xinghao Li; Xiang Zhang; Lei Xu; Wenying Du; Lei Wu; Dinan Wang; Yan Zhang; Nengcheng Chen

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100113

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Global drought-flood abrupt alternation: Spatio-temporal patterns, drivers, and projections

1.
National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, China University of Geosciences, 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China

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³These authors contributed equally
Corresponding authors: chenzeqiang@cug.edu.cn (Z.C.); chennengcheng@cug.edu.cn (N.C.)
Received Date: January 31, 2024

Accepted Date: December 11, 2024

Published Online: January 16, 2025

The Innovation Geoscience https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100113 | Cite this article

A Correction to this article was published on January 12, 2025

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Greenhouse gases drive the intensification of abrupt drought-flood alternations.
  
  Patterns of abrupt drought-flood alternations over the past 60 years reflect clear signals of human activities.
  
  Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation is projected to increase significantly.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

The spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of drought-flood abrupt alternations (DFAA) have been investigated across several regional and watershed scales; however, comprehensive examination at the global scale is lacking. Here, we employed the long period drought-flood abrupt change index (LDFAI), derived from an ensemble of 40 output datasets from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, to assess the spatiotemporal patterns, drivers, and future projections of global DFAA. The results indicate that DFAA are influenced by various anthropogenic forcings, and greenhouse gas emissions exert the most significant impact. The changes in the intensity of global DFAA (1950–2014), attributed to natural forcing (NAT), anthropogenic aerosols (AER), and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accounted for 5.65%, 14.57%, and 33.55%, respectively. The rates of change of the DFAA intensity under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2014 to 2100 were estimated to be 21.73% (SSP1-2.6), 45.37% (SSP2-4.5), 63.1% (SSP3-7.0), and 69.51% (SSP5-8.5). This means that under high radiative forcing, the regional rivalry and fossil-fuel development models will lead to a significant increase in DFAA. These findings can aid in the development of global adaptive policies related to DFAA.

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Chen Z., Li X., Zhang X., et al. (2025). Global drought-flood abrupt alternation: Spatio-temporal patterns, drivers, and projections. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100113. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100113

Chen Z., Li X., Zhang X., et al. (2025). Global drought-flood abrupt alternation: Spatio-temporal patterns, drivers, and projections. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100113. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100113

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