Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes

Xiyu Dong; Rishui Chen; Xiaowen Niu; Clara Hummel; Gayatri Kathayat; Yitao Liu; Jingyao Zhao; Haiwei Zhang; Zhengguo Shi; Xu Zhang; Yan Yang; Hai Cheng

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100158

The Innovation Geoscience > 2025 Vol. 3 > No. 4 > 100158

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Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes

1.
Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
2.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø 9037, Norway
3.
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China
4.
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
5.
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Karst Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
6.
Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, China

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Corresponding authors: cheng021@xjtu.edu.cn (H.C.); xiyu_dong@126.com (X.D.)
Received Date: January 27, 2025

Accepted Date: June 28, 2025

Published Online: July 25, 2025

The Innovation Geoscience 3(4), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100158 | Cite this article

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. We conducted analyses of early warning signals in paleo- and recent speleothem proxy records.
  
  Our analyses reveal strong early warning signals for past abrupt Asian summer monsoon shifts.
  
  The current Asian summer monsoon circulation also shows strong early warning signals.
  
  The Asian summer monsoon circulation may be approaching an abrupt weakening in coming decades.
  
  The Asian summer monsoon system may be considered an important climate tipping element.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

As shown by paleoclimate data and climate models, many climate systems on Earth undergo abrupt shifts when they cross tipping points (TPs), and these abrupt shifts are sometimes preceded by early warning signals (EWS). As a vital component of Earth's climate system, the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) system sustains the survival of billions of people. However, it remains unclear whether paleo-ASM abrupt events were preceded by EWS and whether the abrupt shifts in the ASM may ensue in the near future. In this study, we identified EWS preceding abrupt shifts in the ASM circulation using high-resolution speleothem δ¹⁸O records, including rising variance and autocorrelation, and weakening resilience. Our analyses reveal akin EWS both in periods preceding historical ASM abrupt events (e.g., Heinrich events) and in modern records over the last 200 years, suggesting a plausibility that the ASM is approaching a TP by the mid-21^st century. The dynamic coupling of the ASM circulation with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation provides a possible mechanism behind the persistent reoccurrence of abrupt ASM transitions. These findings position the ASM system as a potential climate tipping element, and the potential tipping of its circulation can profoundly change spatiotemporal rainfall patterns over the ASM domain, thus necessitating urgent research.
- Speleothem records /
- Asian summer monsoon /
- Early warning signal /
- Tipping point /
- Tipping element

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Dong X., Chen R., Niu X., et al. (2025). Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100158. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100158

Dong X., Chen R., Niu X., et al. (2025). Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100158. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100158

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Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes

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Early warning signals for Asian summer monsoon tipping and implications for future monsoon changes

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