Machine learning was used to evaluate historical soil organic carbon dynamics in Tibetan Plateau.
Vegetation water use efficiency played a neglected key role in promoting soil organic carbon sequestration.
Soil organic carbon stocks in nearly one-third of plateau area are dominated by water use efficiency.
Water use efficiency affects soil carbon sequestration by regulating vegetation growth and soil pH.
| [1] | Janzen H.H. (2004). Carbon cycling in Earth systems—a soil science perspective. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 104:399−417. DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2004.01.040 |
| [2] | Le Quéré C., Andrew R.M., Friedlingstein P., et al. (2018). Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10:2141−2194. DOI:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 |
| [3] | Bradford M.A., Wieder W.R., Bonan G.B., et al. (2016). Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6:751−758. DOI:10.1038/nclimate3071 |
| [4] | Schuur E.A.G., McGuire A.D., Schädel C., et al. (2015). Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature 520:171−179. DOI:10.1038/nature14338 |
| [5] | Delgado-Baquerizo M., Oliverio A.M., Brewer T.E., et al. (2018). A global atlas of the dominant bacteria found in soil. Science 359:320–325. DOI:10.1126/science.aap9516 |
| [6] | Johnson K., Kihara J., Fan M., et al. (2024). Understanding soil health. One Earth 7:2088−2091. DOI:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.11.011 |
| [7] | Lal R. (2004). Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security. Science 304:1623−1627. DOI:10.1126/science.1097396 |
| [8] | Zhou Z., Ren C., Wang C., et al. (2024). Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon. Nat. Commun. 15:5329. DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-49743-7 |
| [9] | Viscarra Rossel R.A., Webster R., Zhang M., et al. (2024). How much organic carbon could the soil store? The carbon sequestration potential of Australian soil. Glob. Change Biol. 30:e17053. DOI:10.1111/gcb.17053 |
| [10] | Ren Z., Li C., Fu B., et al. (2024). Effects of aridification on soil total carbon pools in China’s drylands. Glob. Change Biol. 30:e17091. DOI: 0.1111/gcb.17091 |
| [11] | Lin S., Wang G., Hu Z., et al. (2020). Spatiotemporal variability and driving factors of Tibetan Plateau water use efficiency. J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres 125:e2020JD032642. DOI:10.1029/2020JD032642 |
| [12] | Rawls W.J., Pachepsky Y.A., Ritchie J.C., et al. (2003). Effect of soil organic carbon on soil water retention. Geoderma 116:61−76. DOI:10.1016/S0016-7061(03)00094-6 |
| [13] | Shao W., Guan Q., Liu H., et al. (2024). Temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon and water use efficiency on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and their ecosystem responses. J. Clean. Prod. 475:143581. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143581 |
| [14] | Keenan T.F., Hollinger D.Y., Bohrer G., et al. (2013). Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise. Nature 499:324−327. DOI:10.1038/nature12291 |
| [15] | Law B.E., Falge E., Gu L., et al. (2002). Environmental controls over carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange of terrestrial vegetation. Agric. For. Meteorol. 113:97–120. DOI:10.1016/S0168-1923(02)00104-1 |
| [16] | Chen C., Park T., Wang X., et al. (2019). China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management. Nat. Sustain. 2:122–129. DOI:10.1038/s41893-019-0220-7 |
| [17] | Lucht W., Prentice L.C., Myneni R.B., et al. (2002). Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and pinatubo effect. Science 296:1687–1689. DOI:10.1126/science.1071828 |
| [18] | Piao S., Wang X., Park T., et al. (2019). Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1:14–27. DOI:10.1038/s43017-019-0001-x |
| [19] | Liu S., Xue L., Xiao Y., et al. (2024). Dynamic process of ecosystem water use efficiency and response to drought in the Yellow River Basin, China. Sci. Total Environ. 934:173339. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173339 |
| [20] | Wang M., Guo X., Zhang S., et al. (2022). Global soil profiles indicate depth-dependent soil carbon losses under a warmer climate. Nat. Commun. 13:5514. DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-33278-w |
| [21] | De Rosa D., Ballabio C., Lugato E., et al. (2024). Soil organic carbon stocks in European croplands and grasslands: How much have we lost in the past decade? Glob. Change Biol. 30:e16992. DOI:10.1111/gcb.16992 |
| [22] | Qiu J. (2008). China: The third pole. Nature 454:393−396. DOI:10.1038/454393a |
| [23] | Ding J., Chen L., Ji C., et al. (2017). Decadal soil carbon accumulation across Tibetan permafrost regions. Nat. Geosci. 10:420–424. DOI:10.1038/ngeo2945 |
| [24] | Zimov S.A., Schuur E.A.G. and Chapin F.S. (2006). Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget. Science 312:1612−1613. DOI:10.1126/science.1128908 |
| [25] | Wang T., Yang D., Yang Y., et al. (2020). Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau. Sci. Adv. 6:eaaz3513. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaz3513 |
| [26] | Fang X., Luo S., Lyu S., et al. (2021). Numerical modeling of the responses of soil temperature and soil moisture to climate change over the Tibetan Plateau, 1961–2010. Int. J. Climatol. 41:4134–4150. DOI:10.1002/joc.7062 |
| [27] | Shen M., Wang S., Jiang N., et al. (2022). Plant phenology changes and drivers on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 3:633–651. DOI:10.1038/s43017-022-00317-5 |
| [28] | National Soil Survey Office. (1995). China Soil Series IV–V. China Agricultural Press, Beijing. (In Chinese) |
| [29] | National Soil Survey Office. (1996). China Soil Series VI. China Agricultural Press, Beijing. (In Chinese) |
| [30] | Bishop T.F.A., McBratney A.B. and Laslett G.M. (1999). Modelling soil attribute depth functions with equal-area quadratic smoothing splines. Geoderma 91:27−45. DOI:10.1016/S0016-7061(99)00003-8 |
| [31] | Xu L., Yu G., He N., et al. (2018). Carbon storage in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: A synthesis. Sci. Rep. 8:2806. DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-20764-9 |
| [32] | Yang Y.H., Mohammat A., Feng J.M., et al. (2007). Storage, patterns and environmental controls of soil organic carbon in China. Biogeochemistry 84:131−141. DOI:10.1007/s10533-007-9109-z |
| [33] | Li H., Wu Y., Liu S., et al. (2022). Decipher soil organic carbon dynamics and driving forces across China using machine learning. Glob. Change Biol. 28:3394–3410. DOI:10.1111/gcb.16154 |
| [34] | McBratney A.B., Mendonça Santos M.L. and Minasny B. (2003). On digital soil mapping. Geoderma 117:3−52. DOI:10.1016/S0016-7061(03)00223-4 |
| [35] | Peng S., Ding Y., Liu W. et al. (2019). 1 km monthly temperature and precipitation dataset for China from 1901 to 2017. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 11:1931−1946. DOI:10.5194/essd-11-1931-2019 |
| [36] | Chen B., Lu Q., Wei L., et al. (2024). Global predictions of topsoil organic carbon stocks under changing climate in the 21st century. Sci. Total Environ. 908:168448. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168448 |
| [37] | Li M., Cao S., Zhu Z., et al. (2023). Spatiotemporally consistent global dataset of the GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (PKU GIMMS NDVI) from 1982 to 2022. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 15:4181–4203. DOI:10.5194/essd-15-4181-2023 |
| [38] | Song L., Liu S., Kustas W.P., et al. (2018). Monitoring and validating spatially and temporally continuous daily evaporation and transpiration at river basin scale. Remote Sens. Environ. 219:72–88. DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.002 |
| [39] | Yuan W., Liu S., Yu G., et al. (2010). Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data. Remote Sens. Environ. 114:1416–1431. DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2010.01.022 |
| [40] | Liu F., Zhang G.L., Song X., et al. (2020). High-resolution and three-dimensional mapping of soil texture of China. Geoderma 361:114061. DOI:10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.114061 |
| [41] | Liu F., Wu H, Zhao Y., et al. (2022). Mapping high resolution National Soil Information Grids of China. Sci. Bull. 67:328–340. DOI:10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.013 |
| [42] | R Core Team. (2021). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:215755663 |
| [43] | Breiman L. (2001). Random Forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5−32. DOI:10.1023/A:1010933404324 |
| [44] | Sanderman J., Hengl T. and Fiske G.J. (2017). Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 114:9575−9580. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1706103114 |
| [45] | Wu Z., Chen Y., Yang Z., et al. (2023). Spatial distribution of lead concentration in peri-urban soil: Threshold and interaction effects of environmental variables. Geoderma 429:116193. DOI:10.1016/j.geoderma.2022.116193 |
| [46] | Helfenstein A., Mulder V.L., Heuvelink G.B.M., et al. (2024). Three-dimensional space and time mapping reveals soil organic matter decreases across anthropogenic landscapes in the Netherlands. Commun. Earth Environ. 5:130. DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01293-y |
| [47] | Ren S., Terrer C., Li J., et al. (2024). Historical impacts of grazing on carbon stocks and climate mitigation opportunities. Nat. Clim. Change 14:380−386. DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-01957-9 |
| [48] | Zhao D., Zhang Z. and Zhang Y. (2023). Soil moisture dominates the forest productivity decline during the 2022 China compound drought‐heatwave event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50:e2023GL104539. DOI:10.1029/2023GL104539 |
| [49] | Kuzyakov Y. and Gavrichkova O. (2010). Review: Time lag between photosynthesis and carbon dioxide efflux from soil: A review of mechanisms and controls. Glob. Change Biol. 16:3386−3406. DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02179.x |
| [50] | Li H., Wei M., Dong L., et al. (2022). Leaf and ecosystem water use efficiencies differ in their global-scale patterns and drivers. Agric. For. Meteorol. 319:108919. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108919 |
| [51] | Yang S., Zhang J., Han J., et al. (2021). Evaluating global ecosystem water use efficiency response to drought based on multi-model analysis. Sci. Total Environ. 778:146356. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146356 |
| [52] | Wang S., Zhang Y., Ju W., et al. (2020). Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 370:1295–1300. DOI:10.1126/science.abb7772 |
| [53] | Johnston E.R., Hatt J.K., He Z., et al. (2019). Responses of tundra soil microbial communities to half a decade of experimental warming at two critical depths. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 116:15096−15105. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1901307116 |
| [54] | Gao T., Kang S., Yao T., et al. (2024). Carbon dynamics shift in changing cryosphere and hydrosphere of the Third Pole. Earth Sci. Rev. 250:104717. DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104717 |
| [55] | Fan Z. and Bai X. (2021). Scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change. Sci. Total Environ. 796:148918. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148918 |
| [56] | Berdugo M., Delgado-Baquerizo M., Soliveres S., et al. (2020). Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity. Science 367:787−790. DOI:10.1126/science.aay5958 |
| [57] | Deng L., Peng C., Kim D.G., et al. (2021). Drought effects on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in global natural ecosystems. Earth-Sci. Rev. 214:103501. DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103501 |
| [58] | Hong S., Piao S., Chen A., et al. (2018). Afforestation neutralizes soil pH. Nat. Commun. 9:520. DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-02970-1 |
| [59] | Mishra U., Hugelius G., Shelef E., et al. (2021). Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks. Sci. Adv. 7:eaaz5236. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaz5236 |
| [60] | Schädel C., Bader M.K.F., Schuur E.A.G., et al. (2016). Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils. Nat. Clim. Change 6:950−953. DOI:10.1038/nclimate3054 |
| [61] | Huang B., Lu F., Wang X., et al. (2024). Ecological restoration is crucial in mitigating carbon loss caused by permafrost thawing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Commun. Earth Environ. 5:341. DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01511-7 |
| Sun Z., Chen C., Chen Q., et al. (2026). Enhanced soil carbon sequestration capacity is facilitated by vegetation water use efficiency on Earth's Third Pole. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100181. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100181 |
To request copyright permission to republish or share portions of our works, please visit Copyright Clearance Center's (CCC) Marketplace website at marketplace.copyright.com.
Environmental context of the Tibetan Plateau
Spatial distribution of SOC stocks from 1982 to 2013
Temporal variations and spatial patterns of SOC stocks in the top 20 cm and top 100 cm
Spatial patterns and temporal variations of environmental factors
Relative contribution of environmental factors to SOC stocks
Spatial decoupling of environmental factors affecting on SOC stocks
Pathway driving SOC stocks in different soil layers and the effect size of environmental factors