Global warming driving increased winter CO2 emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region

Yuguo Wei; Cuicui Mu; Deliang Chen; Xiaoxiao Mo; Bo Elberling; Wenxin Zhang; Guofei Zhang; Chunling Zhang; Kun Li; Xiaodong Li; Mingming Shi; Mei Mu; Xufeng Wang; Da Wei; Tianbao Dou; Xinlong Du; Xiaoqing Peng; Yanxiang Jin; Jingfeng Xiao; Philippe Ciais

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185

The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 1 > 100185

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Global warming driving increased winter CO₂ emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region

1.
Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Observation and research station on Eco-Environment of Frozen Ground in the Qilian Mountains, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Cryosphere Research Station on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
3.
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4.
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen DK1350, Denmark
5.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund 22100, Sweden
6.
Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810001, China
7.
Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
8.
Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
9.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China
10.
School of the Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China
11.
Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA
12.
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France

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Corresponding authors: mucc@lzu.edu.cn (C.M.); deliangchen@tsinghua.edu.cn (D.C.)
Received Date: June 02, 2025

Accepted Date: October 17, 2025

Published Online: October 24, 2025

The Innovation Geoscience 4(1), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185 | Cite this article

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. We estimate the winter CO₂ emissions of 1,289 ± 25 Tg C yr⁻¹ from the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region.
  
  Since the 2000s, winter CO₂ emissions in the Arctic increased, but those on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) declined.
  
  Soil temperature and moisture dominated the trends of winter CO₂ emissions in the Arctic and TP, respectively.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Global warming accelerates the breakdown of carbon stored in permafrost regions, releasing it into the atmosphere and amplifying climate change, particularly during winter when photosynthesis ceases. The Northern Hemisphere's permafrost is primarily concentrated in two key regions — the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau — each with distinct environmental characteristics. However, previous studies often treat these regions separately, missing the opportunity to compare their winter CO₂ emissions within a unified framework. Here, we synthesized 2,487 monthly CO₂ flux measurements from 166 in-situ sites to quantify the spatial and temporal variations and key drivers of winter CO₂ emissions in these two regions. Our analysis reveals that combined winter emissions from the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are estimated to be 1,289 ± 25 Tg C yr^-1. From 1982 to 2022, winter CO₂ emissions increased by 2.10 ± 0.23 Tg C yr^-1. Notably, since 2001, winter CO₂ emissions have surged in the Arctic while declining in the Tibetan Plateau. The driving factors also differ: soil temperature dominates in the Arctic (51%), whereas soil moisture plays the most significant role on the Tibetan Plateau (33%). These findings highlight the contrasting mechanisms governing winter carbon emissions in these regions and underscore the importance of incorporating region-specific factors when predicting permafrost-carbon feedbacks in a warming world.
- Arctic /
- Tibetan Plateau /
- Permafrost /
- Climate change /
- Winter CO₂emissions

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Wei Y., Mu C., Chen D., et al. (2026). Global warming driving increased winter CO2 emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100185. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185

Wei Y., Mu C., Chen D., et al. (2026). Global warming driving increased winter CO₂ emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100185. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100185

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Global warming driving increased winter CO₂ emissions in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region