Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions

Juan Liang; Xianfeng Liu; Jiabo Yin; David Makowski; Changjia Li; Jiayuan Liu; Amir AghaKouchak; Jin Shu

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100210

The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 2 > 100210

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Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions

1.
School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China
3.
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR 518 MIA-PS, Palaiseau 91120, France
4.
Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100000, China
5.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, CA 92612, USA
6.
United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, Hamilton, ON L8P 0A1, Canada
7.
School of Computer Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China

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Corresponding author: liuxianfeng7987@163.com
Received Date: July 02, 2025

Accepted Date: March 06, 2026

Published Online: March 12, 2026

The Innovation Geoscience 4(2), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100210 | Cite this article

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1. Compound heatwave–pluvial events (CHPEs)—heatwaves followed by heavy rain within 7 days—are rising worldwide.
  
  1980–2021 saw more and longer CHPEs, with hotspots in Central Europe, East Asia and North America.
  
  Sensible heat flux (SSHF) and total column water vapor (TCWV) promote heatwave-to-pluvial shifts.
  
  Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), exposure rises fastest in low-income countries.
  
  Targeted mitigation and adaptation are needed to protect dense urban hotspots and reduce climate inequality.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Compound heatwave-pluvial events (CHPEs) can cause severe socio-economic damage and are difficult to predict because of their complex transition processes. Moreover, their spatial patterns and impacts on socio-economic systems remain poorly understood. Using an extensive set of atmospheric reanalysis data and model simulations, we observed a significant global increase in the frequency and duration of CHPEs from 1980 to 2021, with hotspots in Central Europe, East Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, Southern Africa, the Amazon Basin, and North America. Low-income countries are projected to experience a significantly higher population (+42.2%) and GDP exposure (+46.4%) to CHPEs than high-income countries under the SSP585. These findings emphasize the ongoing disparities in exposure under future socio-economic scenarios, highlighting the urgent need to develop equitable and just mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly in less-developed regions.
- Compound extreme events /
- heatwaves /
- extreme precipitation /
- socio-economic exposure /
- climate inequality

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REFERENCES

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Liang J., Liu X., Yin J., et al. (2026). Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100210. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100210

Liang J., Liu X., Yin J., et al. (2026). Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100210. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100210

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Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions

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