Eutrophication-driven widespread surface dissolved oxygen enrichment in Chinese lakes: A warming-vulnerable transient state?

Yindong Tong; Feng Zhao; Zhao Huang; Qirui Wang; Xiangzhen Kong; Wei He; Yan Lin; Lei Chen; Erik Jeppesen; Robert Ladwig; Yue Qin; Yong Liu

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100215

The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 2 > 100215

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Eutrophication-driven widespread surface dissolved oxygen enrichment in Chinese lakes: A warming-vulnerable transient state?

1.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2.
School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa 850000, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China
4.
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department Lake Research, Magdeburg 39114, Germany
5.
School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
6.
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China
7.
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
8.
Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
9.
Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark
10.
Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
11.
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Material Fluxes in River Ecosystems, Institute of Tibetan Plateau, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

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Corresponding authors: xzkong@niglas.ac.cn (X.K.); yongliu@pku.edu.cn (Y.L.)
Received Date: October 09, 2025

Accepted Date: March 24, 2026

Published Online: March 30, 2026

The Innovation Geoscience 4(2), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100215 | Cite this article

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Dissolved oxygen increased in ~100 Chinese lakes with a rate of 0.07 (-0.15–0.42) mg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹ (2006–2018).
  
  DO enrichment was most pronounced in eutrophic lakes, primarily driven by elevated primary production.
  
  Future projections suggest rising nutrient loads reverse the lake DO enrichment and lead to deoxygenation.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a critical determinant of lake ecosystem function and services. The interaction between climate warming and anthropogenic nutrient inputs exerts opposing effects on lake DO—warming decreases gas solubility (DO_sat), while nutrient enrichment enhances net ecosystem production through eutrophication-driven primary production, potentially leading to transient DO enrichment. This creates a vulnerable state that may shift under future climate-nutrient interactions, which limits accurate predictions of lake DO dynamics. Here, we calculated ΔDO (= DO – DO_sat) in the surface waters of 99 freshwater lakes in China (66 subtropical and 33 temperate), spanning a broad trophic gradient (TN: 0.1–8.3 mg·L^-1; TP: 5.4–256 μg·L^-1). Using a combined process-based and data-driven modeling approach, we examined DO dynamics in relation to water temperature, primary productivity, and water quality. Despite rapid lake warming (0.38 [0.19–0.48]°C·decade^-1) and a corresponding decline in DO_sat (-0.06 [-0.18 – -0.02] mg·L^-1·yr^-1), we observed widespread DO enrichment from 2006 to 2018, with an average ΔDO increase of 0.07 [-0.15–0.42] mg·L^-1·yr^-1. This enrichment was most pronounced in eutrophic lakes, driven by enhanced primary production. However, future projections suggest that current DO enrichment trends may be a transient state and reverse due to a disproportionate increase in DO consumption relative to production, driven by asymmetric responses to warming, potentially leading to deoxygenation. While nutrient management is widely regarded as an effective strategy against eutrophication, our findings underscore the need to carefully assess its coupled effects on lake DO before implementation. Given the accelerating warming of water bodies, developing nutrient management strategies informed by lake DO levels should be a priority.
- Dissolved oxygen /
- eutrophic lakes /
- climate warming /
- nutrient controls /
- primary productivity /
- process-based modeling

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Tong Y., Zhao F., Huang Z., et al. (2026). Eutrophication-driven widespread surface dissolved oxygen enrichment in Chinese lakes: A warming-vulnerable transient state? The Innovation Geoscience 4:100215. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100215

Tong Y., Zhao F., Huang Z., et al. (2026). Eutrophication-driven widespread surface dissolved oxygen enrichment in Chinese lakes: A warming-vulnerable transient state? The Innovation Geoscience 4:100215. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100215

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Eutrophication-driven widespread surface dissolved oxygen enrichment in Chinese lakes: A warming-vulnerable transient state?

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