Urbanization and climate change disproportionately affect worldwide rooftop solar viability for self-sufficient electricity

Jing Chen; Yimin Chen; Ming Luo; Yuanzhi Yao; Xiaocong Xu; Weilin Liao; Xiaoping Liu; Xia Li

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100222

The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 3 > 100222

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Urbanization and climate change disproportionately affect worldwide rooftop solar viability for self-sufficient electricity

1.
School of Geography and Planning, and Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2.
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

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Corresponding authors: chenym49@mail.sysu.edu.cn (Y.C.); yzyao@geo.ecnu.edu.cn (Y.Y.); liuxp3@mail.sysu.edu.cn (X.P.L.)
Received Date: October 15, 2025

Accepted Date: April 09, 2026

Published Online: April 17, 2026

The Innovation Geoscience 4(3), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100222 | Cite this article

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PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Urban expansion will considerably increase rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) potential over the 21^st century.
  
  Per capita RPV potential is likely to decline due to the prevailing trend towards urban densification.
  
  Urbanization primarily drives RPV potential changes, but climate change impacts cannot be overlooked.
  
  Urbanization and climate change may disproportionately constrain lower-income countries’ RPV viability.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Rooftop photovoltaics (RPVs) play an increasingly critical role in global zero-carbon energy transition, yet underexplored is to what extent RPV potential can supply the ever-rising electricity demand under the combined effects of urbanization and climate change. Here, we project that the global RPV potential will grow by 13%—20% from 2015 to 2100 under four different socioeconomic-climate scenarios. This increase is primarily driven by RPV gains associated with urban expansion, although nearly one-fifth of them might be offset by climate-induced losses under high-emissions scenarios. However, future urban densification can drive down per capita RPV potential, which, alongside increasing individual consumption, will diminish RPVs' maximum feasible share in global electricity mix from 117% to 30%—47% by 2100. While simultaneously suffering from more severe and widespread high-emissions-induced losses, many developing countries, particularly the least developed, will undergo stronger urban densification, which shifts their RPV electricity supply-demand ratios from general surpluses over 200% to deficits much larger than those in wealthier countries. Given their reliance on RPVs for access to clean electricity, our results highlight the urgent need for strategic interventions, including embedding climate action into urban planning and accelerating global collaborative technological advancements, to mitigate these disproportionate impacts and foster an equitable energy transition.
- Renewable energy /
- Solar potential /
- Rooftop photovoltaics /
- Urbanization /
- Climate change

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Chen J., Chen Y., Luo M., et al. (2026). Urbanization and climate change disproportionately affect worldwide rooftop solar viability for self-sufficient electricity. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100222. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100222

Chen J., Chen Y., Luo M., et al. (2026). Urbanization and climate change disproportionately affect worldwide rooftop solar viability for self-sufficient electricity. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100222. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100222

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Urbanization and climate change disproportionately affect worldwide rooftop solar viability for self-sufficient electricity

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