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The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 3 > 100236
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A strong El Niño developing in 2026 could drive global surface temperatures to record highs

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/China Meteorological Administration Climate Studies Key Laboratory, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

  • 2.

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

  • 3.

    NOAA/NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Riverdale Park MD 20737, USA

  • 4.

    Laboratory of Atmospheric and Oceanic Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

  • 5.

    College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China

  • 6.

    Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao 266237, China

  • 7.

    Shandong Key Laboratory of Polar and Deep-Sea Environmental Sensing and Intelligent Exploration (PKL2024A11), Qingdao 266590, China

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  • Corresponding author: liuyuny@cma.gov.cn 
  • Received Date:  March 26, 2026
    Accepted Date:  June 01, 2026
    Published Online:  June 03, 2026
The Innovation Geoscience  4(3),  https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100236  |  Cite this article
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    • REFERENCES
  • [1] Hu Z. -Z., Xue Y., Huang B., et al. (2022). Global ocean monitoring and forecast at NOAA climate prediction center: 15 years of operations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 103:E2701−E2718. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0056.1

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    [2] Li K., Zheng F., Cheng L., et al. (2023). Record-breaking global temperature and crises with strong El Niño in 2023-2024. Innov. Geosci. 1:100030. DOI:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100030

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    [3] Jiang N., Zhu C., McPhaden M. J., et al. (2025). Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5°C record. Commun. Earth & Environ. 6:1012. DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02971-1

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    [4] Hu Z. -Z., Kumar A., Zhu J., et al. (2019). On the challenge for ENSO cycle prediction: An example from NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J. Climate 32:183−194. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0285.1

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    [5] Liu Y., Hu Z. -Z., Wu R., et al. (2024). Evolution of ENSO-related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit. Int. J. Climatol. 44:269−285. DOI:10.1002/joc.8327

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  • Cite this article:

    Liu Y., Hu Z.-Z., Zhang S., et al. (2026). A strong El Niño developing in 2026 could drive global surface temperatures to record highs. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100236. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100236
    Liu Y., Hu Z.-Z., Zhang S., et al. (2026). A strong El Niño developing in 2026 could drive global surface temperatures to record highs. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100236. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100236

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