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GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
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PUBLIC SUMMARY
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Melting ground ice leads to thaw subsidence, accelerating permafrost loss under warming.
Thaw subsidence can make complete permafrost loss occur decades earlier than expected.
More than 88% of absorbed energy is used to melt ground ice, not simply warm the soil.
Earth system models should include thaw subsidence to improve permafrost-related water and carbon simulations.
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ABSTRACT
One of the major issues associated with degrading permafrost is thaw subsidence caused by the melting of ground ice. This process has great impacts on engineered structures, hydrological cycles, the carbon cycle, and energy processes under climate change. However, accurately representing thaw subsidence in permafrost dynamics still poses a significant challenge for Earth system models (ESMs). In this study, we used a moving-grid permafrost model (MGPM) incorporating heat transfer processes, the ground ice melting process, and thaw subsidence processes to project that the rates of increase in cumulative thaw subsidence will be 0.43 m/decade, 0.58 m/decade, and 0.77 m/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. On average, accounting for thaw subsidence accelerates the complete degradation of permafrost by over 17 years across future scenarios with varying ground ice conditions. This mainly manifests in the marked acceleration of upward degradation of permafrost due to the warming of the upper boundary, which obstructs the upward transfer of geothermal energy from the lower boundary, creating a canopy effect. When thaw subsidence is accounted for, the initial energy consumed by ground ice melting increases substantially—absorbing 7% more energy on average—thereby accelerating permafrost thinning. Moreover, incorporating thaw subsidence leads to faster release of meltwater from ground ice and accelerated thawing of permafrost-stored carbon. By quantifying its effects, this study enhances understanding of permafrost degradation and its consequences. These findings underscore the need to integrate thaw subsidence into Earth System Models (ESMs) to improve permafrost simulations.-
Keywords:
- Permafrost /
- ground ice /
- thaw subsidence /
- modeling /
- climate change
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REFERENCES
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Cite this article:
Hu G., Sun Z., Zhao L., et al. (2026). Thaw subsidence accelerates permafrost degradation. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100242. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100242
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Hu G., Sun Z., Zhao L., et al. (2026). Thaw subsidence accelerates permafrost degradation. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100242. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100242
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Figure 1.
Cumulative thaw subsidence (A) and rate of change in cumulative thaw subsidence; (B) under different climate scenarios at the Wudaoliang site
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Figure 2.
Permafrost degradation process under different climatic scenarios with different ground ice conditions at the Wudaoliang site
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Figure 3.
Changes in the permafrost table and base under different climate scenarios with and without thaw subsidence at the Wudaoliang site
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Figure 4.
Difference in energy absorption considering thaw subsidence and not considering thaw subsidence at the Wudaoliang site
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Figure 5.
Proportion of total energy going to increasing ground temperatures and melting ground ice in permafrost under different ground ice content conditions at the Wudaoliang site
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Figure 6.
Change in water release from ground ice melted under different climate scenarios at the Wudaoliang site
