Global increase in tropical cyclone outflow height

Zhihao Feng; Yuan Sun; Wei Zhong; Haikun Zhao; Weimin Zhang; Yanning Liang; Yanluan Lin; Zongbao Bai

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100248

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Global increase in tropical cyclone outflow height

1.
College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
2.
College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211100, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
5.
Department of Navigation, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116000, China
6.
These authors contributed equally

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Corresponding authors: sunyuan1214@126.com (Y.S.); zhongwei@nudt.edu.cn (W.Z.); haikunzhao@nuist.edu.cn (H.Z.)
Received Date: March 02, 2026

Accepted Date: July 10, 2026

Published Online: July 14, 2026

The Innovation Geoscience https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100248 | Cite this article

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Global tropical cyclone (TC) outflow height has risen significantly over 74 years.
  
  Anthropogenic forcing, not natural variability, is the primary cause of increasing TC outflow height.
  
  Rising outflow height cools the outflow layer, indirectly enhancing TC potential intensity under warming.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Compared to air–sea interactions, relatively little is known about the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) outflow environment, even though it makes an important contribution to TC intensity. Here we present a global trend analysis of TC outflow height for 1950–2023 based on the IBTrACS and ERA5 data. TC outflow height has increased globally by 40.29 ± 8.28 m·decade^-1, and all six basins exhibit notable upward trends beyond natural variability, likely due to global warming. The increase in TC outflow height leads to decreased outflow temperature (-0.21 ± 0.08 K·decade^-1), thereby indirectly enhancing TC potential intensity (PI). The contributions of TC outflow environment change to TC PI variations were quantitatively assessed. Under global warming, TC outflow height is expected to continue increasing, potentially leading to significant changes in TC outflow environment and ultimately driving an increase in future TC intensity.
- tropical cyclone /
- outflow height /
- global warming /
- global trend /
- potential intensity

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Cite this article:

Feng Z., Sun Y., Zhong W., et al. (2026). Global increase in tropical cyclone outflow height. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100248. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100248

Feng Z., Sun Y., Zhong W., et al. (2026). Global increase in tropical cyclone outflow height. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100248. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100248

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Global increase in tropical cyclone outflow height

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ABSTRACT