Enhancing the resilience of social-ecological systems to heatwave risk through the Prediction-Adaptation-Integration framework
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ABSTRACT
Under global climate warming, heatwaves have evolved from isolated meteorological events into compound disturbances within social-ecological systems. Current responses, which mainly rely on reactive approaches, cannot effectively address the compound nature of heatwave risks. To address this gap, this study introduces a Prediction-Adaptation-Integration (PAI) framework based on a recursive feedback loop, which reframes heatwave governance as a dynamic system. To put this framework into practice, we outline three design principles: (I) ex-ante risk-informed targeting, (II) in-event risk-proportionate intervention, and (III) ex-post iterative learning. The PAI framework provides a transferable model to strengthen long-term resilience under increasingly severe heatwave conditions. -
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REFERENCES
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Yang Z. and Peng J. (2027). Enhancing the resilience of social-ecological systems to heatwave risk through the Prediction-Adaptation-Integration framework. The Innovation Geoscience 5:100260. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100260
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Yang Z. and Peng J. (2027). Enhancing the resilience of social-ecological systems to heatwave risk through the Prediction-Adaptation-Integration framework. The Innovation Geoscience 5:100260. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100260
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Figure 1.
The Prediction–Adaptation–Integration (PAI) framework
