COP30 in Belém: Ten years after Paris and the achievements and shortfalls of global climate governance
The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place from 10 to 22 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil. Widely viewed as a pivotal moment in global climate governance, COP30 attracted heightened international attention with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, marked a critical juncture for assessing global progress toward temperature goals. At the same time, 2024 may become the hottest year on record, with global mean temperature exceeding the pre-industrial level by about 1.5°C for the first time (Figure 1), underscoring the widening gap between actual warming trajectories and Paris targets. In addition, the United States' renewed initiation of withdrawal procedures in 2025 amplified uncertainty in the multilateral climate regime. Escalating geopolitical tensions and unilateral climate-related trade and industrial measures, including carbon border adjustment mechanisms and green industrial policies, are reshaping the external environment for multilateral climate cooperation, with significant implications for fairness, trust, and supply-chain resilience. Symbolically, COP30 also marks an institutional return to Brazil following the 1992 Rio Earth Summit.
Against this backdrop, the Emissions Gap Report 2025 released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that, even with undated NDCs, global warming could still reach approximately 2.4°C by century's end. To limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, global annual greenhouse gas emissions must fall by about 35% and 55%, respectively, by 2035 relative to 2019 levels. The gap between pledges and action has therefore become the defining challenge shaping the second decade of the Paris Agreement.
In this context, COP30 is expected to shift the global climate process from target setting toward pragmatic actions, with potential breakthroughs in legal frameworks, climate finance, transparency and verification, and adaptation.
The "ambition gap" in NDC From commitments to execution
By 2025, countries were required to submit NDC 3.0 targets for 2035, yet most remained behind schedule or offered plans falling short of necessary ambition. Both the updated UNFCCC Synthesis Report of Nationally Determined Contributions and UNEP assessments show that the new NDCs only marginally narrow projected warming this century. Global emissions are expected to remain elevated in 2030, far from the structural reductions required to align with the 1.5°C pathway.
Against this background, the focus of the Belém negotiations shifted from announcing new goals to strengthening implementation. Key challenges include: how to translate NDC targets into sectoral allocations, policy instruments, and investment and financing constraints within the legal, transparency, and verification framework under the Paris Agreement; and how to strengthen implementation pressure through stronger domestic enforcement, policy coherence, and iterative review and stocktaking cycles. These issues constitute both the core technical tasks and the principal political tests that global climate governance will confront in the coming decade.
