Mitigating inequity risks in China's net-zero energy transition via an enhanced renewable-guided industrial spatial reconfiguration
Public summary
* China's net-zero energy transition by 2060 might exacerbate regional disparities in gross GDP and jobs.
* Industrial spatial reconfiguration narrows regional gaps in economics and job distribution.
* This reconfiguration boosts national GDP by 0.06% and employment by 0.68 million in 2060.
* Supporting policies are critical for a just transition.
Abstract
The energy transition to net-zero carbon emissions may exacerbate regional inequities, impeding an orderly national transition and threatening global climate goals. This challenge might be particularly severe in China, as it simultaneously faces significant regional disparities, carbon-intensive industrial and energy structures, and a relatively short transition period. Yet, the inequity risks rooted in regional economic linkages among technologies and sectors during the energy transition remain insufficiently addressed. Here, we newly developed a sector-extended multi-regional input-output model of China with a detailed representation of power production technologies (multi-regional input-output table with a disaggregated power sector [MRIO-DPS]) and further coupled it with the global change analysis model with China provincial-level details (GCAM-China) to assess regional inequities and responses in China’s carbon-neutral energy transition (CNET). By 2060, ∼40% of China’s provinces (mainly economically underdeveloped) are projected to face gross domestic product (GDP) declines ranging from 0.2% to 15.8%, while more developed provinces are expected to see GDP growth of 0.2%–3.5% (CNET scenario). We propose industrial spatial reconfiguration as a countermeasure: relocating energy-intensive industries to renewable-rich provinces while expanding electricity transmission from these provinces to load centers (power transmission combined with industrial transfer [PTIT] scenario). Scenario analysis shows that this reconfiguration significantly narrows subnational inequities, reduces the number of provinces with GDP declines by 42%, and boosts national GDP by 0.06% and employment by 0.68 million in 2060.
