GeothermalKits for modeling geothermal energy: A scenario-based and physical model-free simulation platform
The large-scale development of geothermal energy relies heavily on numerical simulation technologies. However, existing simulators often face challenges such as high modeling complexity, low computational efficiency, and ambiguously defined simulation scenarios. Here, we have developed a completely novel research approach: a physical model-free, scenario-based modeling framework. This approach, aiming to solve interdisciplinary problems in geothermal energy research and engineering, enables users to obtain engineering-ready outputs and actionable solutions directly, thereby reducing the need for extensive post-processing. In addition, physical model-free modules are designed to further improve operational simplicity, particularly in cases where geological heterogeneity and uncertainty exert limited influence on computational results. Based on this approach, we have developed the software platform “GeothermalKits,” which is available in two versions: a basic edition designed for enterprise users with an emphasis on operational simplicity and a professional edition (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17231957), enhanced for academic and research applications requiring professional knowledge and advanced modeling skills. Unlike conventional numerical simulators that primarily perform single forward simulations, GeothermalKits emphasizes usability, professionalism, and comprehensive end-to-end integration, contributing to the broad recognition and adoption of simulation across both industrial and academic geothermal communities.
This software1 introduces innovations that differ from traditional simulation paradigms in the following ways.
(1)In contrast to most existing simulators (e.g., TOUGH2, FEFLOW, etc.) that operate under a single forward simulation mode, GeothermalKits adopts a scenario-based modeling concept, which enables automatic parameter variation between consecutive forward simulations.
(2)To further reduce user barriers and enhance the focus on engineering-oriented outcomes, GeothermalKits employs a physical model-free design philosophy, in which geological models are directly embedded within specific simulation scenarios, thereby eliminating the need for users to manually construct and configure complex geological structures typically required by mainstream computational tools.
Scenario-based modeling
From the perspective of geothermal engineering applications, most projects require accounting for uncertainties associated with various engineering parameters by performing uncertainty quantification analyses or parameter optimization. Both processes typically involve a large number of forward simulations, followed by quantitative evaluation or optimization of key parameters. These two types of analyses represent the most common modeling scenarios encountered in practical geothermal projects.
In conventional numerical modeling workflows, users are required to manually adjust model parameters and restart each new forward simulation, necessitating human intervention throughout uncertainty quantification and model optimization processes. This manual procedure results in low automation efficiency and significantly increases computational time. To address this limitation, GeothermalKits proposed a scenario-based modeling paradigm, which differs from conventional numerical simulation approaches by enabling automatic parameter variation between consecutive forward simulations. Users only need to specify the total number of sampling iterations or scenario cases, while the system autonomously updates parameter sets through either auto-sampling or file-based parameter loading, thereby eliminating repetitive manual operations and enhancing workflow automation.
