Balancing electric vehicle uptake with congestion-related emissions in large Chinese cities

Electrification is key to mitigating tailpipe emissions from road transport, which amounted to 5.87 Gt CO2 globally in 2022. Consequently, many governments have unequivocally promoted the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) through policy measures and regulatory benefits. For example, China has reduced or exempted the vehicle purchase tax for EVs, deployed a “green channel” for EV license plate approvals, facilitated a better charging experience, and removed vehicle usage rationing policies in large cities during peak commuting hours. However, in these large cities, unrestricted EV ownership can result in more on-road vehicles and even congested traffic conditions, subsequently generating more emissions from conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. We discuss the potential trade-offs that balance rapid (electric) vehicle adoption in large cities that can produce unintended side effects and advocate for careful management to mitigate these effects.

More (electric) vehicles on the road

EVs were invented more than 100 years ago, but their ownership was only spurred by technological advances and government support in the last decade. Global EV sales exceeded 17 million in 2024, with a market share of over 20%. EV ownership in China has surged over the past decade, supported by strong national and municipal incentives that began in 2009 (Figure 1). In 2025, China’s annual EV sales reached 16 million, accounting for 47.9% of the market share, with a nationwide ownership of 43.97 million and a penetration rate of 12.01% by 2025, thanks to these promoting policies and subsidies. On the contrary, ICE vehicles receive prudential supervision in large cities to reduce their tailpipe emissions.