Synergies of reducing greenhouse gases and atmospheric nitrogen pollutants in China

Public summary

* An integrated framework is built to quantify synergies of reducing greenhouse gases and nitrogen pollutants.

* Tiered co-control solutions and marginal abatement cost curves are proposed for synergistic management.

* Agriculture shows higher mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness than industry during deep decarbonization.

Abstract

Climate change and environmental degradation driven by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions are intensifying globally. As a major emitter of both, China faces double pressures of GHGs and Nr mitigation to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainability. Here, we employ a multi-model framework to quantify the potential and synergies of reducing GHG (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and atmospheric Nr pollutants (NOx and NH3). Our results indicate that, by 2050, a strong co-control solution could reduce China’s GHG emissions by 88% (80%–101%) and atmospheric Nr pollutants by 67% (50%–80%), delivering societal benefits of US$959 (US$499–US$1,419) billion, five times the implementation costs. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector will emerge as a key contributor to mitigation efforts, particularly after 2030, with its integrated abatement potential surpassing that of industry while offering superior cost-effectiveness. These findings underscore the critical need to dynamically shift mitigation priorities post-carbon peak to boost zero carbon and clean air in China.