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Beyond the multimodel ensemble mean (MME): Assessing plausible climate risk at a given warming level

  • 1.

    Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

  • 2.

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

  • 3.

    College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

  • 4.

    Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Monsoon and Extreme Climate Disasters /Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China

  • 5.

    College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

More Information
  • Corresponding author: wanglin@mail.iap.ac.cn 
  • Received Date:  April 17, 2026
    Accepted Date:  August 03, 2026
    Published Online:  August 05, 2026
The Innovation Geoscience  https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100252  |  Cite this article
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    • REFERENCES
  • [1] Bevacqua E., Fischer E., Sillmann J., et al. (2026). Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes. Nature 651:946−953. DOI:10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9

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    [2] Deser C., Lehner F., Rodgers K. B., et al. (2020). Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nat. Clim. Change 10:277−286. DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2

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    [3] Gong H., Wang L., Screen J., et al. (2025). Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia. Sci. Adv. 11:eadq9461. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adq9461

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    [4] Williamson M. S., Thackeray C. W., Cox P. M., et al. (2021). Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities. Rev. Mod. Phys. 93:025004. DOI:10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004

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    [5] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Key risks across sectors and regions. Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp:2411–2538. Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781009325844.025

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  • Cite this article:

    Gong H., Xia W., Wang L., et al. (2026). Beyond the multimodel ensemble mean (MME): Assessing plausible climate risk at a given warming level. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100252. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100252
    Gong H., Xia W., Wang L., et al. (2026). Beyond the multimodel ensemble mean (MME): Assessing plausible climate risk at a given warming level. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100252. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100252

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