Decision-Aware Pre-Feasibility Screening for Branch-Level Battery Storage Investment Under Spatiotemporal Grid Stress: Evidence from the Tokyo Transmission Network
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PUBLIC SUMMARY
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Public grid, electricity-price and temperature records support early screening of battery storage investments in Tokyo.
Across 283 transmission branches, the model selects six two-hour battery projects totalling 1.33 GW within a JPY 200 billion budget.
Assumed savings from postponing grid upgrades account for 86% of modelled annual value before costs and determine project profitability.
Fifty-seven branches show strong flow responses to hot and cold evenings; none coincides with the six selected battery locations.
Economic and weather assessments identify distinct planning priorities, guiding targeted engineering studies and verification of potential savings.
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ABSTRACT
Public transmission-flow records reveal recurring operational stress, but their value for storage investment depends on a transparent link between observed flows, economic decisions, and subsequent engineering validation. This study develops a decision-aware spatiotemporal framework for branch-level battery energy storage system (BESS) pre-feasibility screening in the Tokyo transmission network. Fiscal-year 2024 TEPCO branch flows are aligned with Tokyo-area day-ahead prices and temperature observations across 283 unique branches and 8,760 hours. A composite stress screen identifies 12 candidates; branch-level linear programs co-optimize BESS power, energy, dispatch, and empirical peak reduction; and a binary portfolio model selects projects under a JPY 200 billion budget. A separate 20:00 weather model estimates branch-specific heating and cooling responses. The selected portfolio contains six two-hour projects totalling 1,328.5 MW/2,657 MWh and JPY 199.3 billion of capital, with a conditional 15-year net present value of JPY 208.0 billion. Valuation depends chiefly on the peak-deferral credit, which supplies 86.1% of gross annual operating value, and the fixed-design break-even value is JPY 14,913/kW-year. Without the credit, annualised net benefit falls to −JPY 19.8 billion/year; at the base value of JPY 30,000/kW-year it reaches JPY 20.0 billion/year. Fifty-seven of 283 branches exhibit robust two-sided temperature responses, the all-branch pressure–temperature rank correlation is weak, and none of the selected projects passes the weather screen. The framework separates economic peak-shaving candidates from weather-responsive corridors and routes each toward an appropriate validation pathway. -
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REFERENCES
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Li Y., Huang T. and Gao W. (2026). Decision-Aware Pre-Feasibility Screening for Branch-Level Battery Storage Investment Under Spatiotemporal Grid Stress: Evidence from the Tokyo Transmission Network. Energy Use 2:100062. https://doi.org/10.59717/ipj.energy-use.2026.100062
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Li Y., Huang T. and Gao W. (2026). Decision-Aware Pre-Feasibility Screening for Branch-Level Battery Storage Investment Under Spatiotemporal Grid Stress: Evidence from the Tokyo Transmission Network. Energy Use 2:100062. https://doi.org/10.59717/ipj.energy-use.2026.100062
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Figure 1.
Research workflow.
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Figure 2.
TEPCO 500/275/154 kV research topology and selected storage sites
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Figure 3.
Peak-window dispatch for the first selected project
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Figure 4.
Annualized economics of the six selected branch-storage projects
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Figure 5.
Fixed-design annualized-profit sensitivity to the assumed peak-deferral value
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Figure 6.
Temperature-sensitive branches
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Figure 7.
Integrated branch priorities. Pressure (congestion-screening) and temperature-evidence scores are weakly rank-correlated
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Figure 8.
Correlation of fixed-design annualized profit with branch pressure and temperature evidence under alternative peak-deferral values