Global lake carbon burial from endorheic zones since the Last Glacial Maximum and the future projection
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GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
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PUBLIC SUMMARY
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Global closed-basin lakes buried twice as much inorganic carbon as organic carbon since the LGM.
Total carbon burial equals ~10% of dryland soil carbon, highlighting its global carbon cycle role.
Lake carbon burial rose since the LGM, driven by area fluctuations linked to westerlies and monsoons.
Projected drying may reduce lake carbon burial by 5% in global closed basins by 2100.
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ABSTRACT
Lake inorganic carbon burial in global closed basins has been recognized as a significant component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, the controlling factors governing its long-term dynamics and its future trajectory remain insufficiently understood. Here, we present a comprehensive dataset encompassing lake inorganic and organic carbon burial records from global closed basins since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), along with associated lake-level reconstructions, modern observations and climate model outputs. Through integrated analysis of lake carbon burial records and lake area simulation, our results indicate that inorganic carbon burial in closed-basin lakes since the LGM has been approximately twice that of organic carbon burial. The total carbon burial is estimated to be around 174 Pg, which accounts for roughly one-tenth of the soil carbon pool in global drylands, underscoring its significance in the global carbon cycle. Lake carbon burial rate has shown a continuous increase since the LGM, with interannual variations of lake carbon burial amount closely linked to fluctuations in lake area, which are primarily modulated by westerly winds and monsoon circulation in different closed basins. Under future global warming scenarios, with projected drying trend in global closed basins, the lake carbon burial potential by2100 is estimated to be approximately 1 Pg, which is about 5% lower compared to scenarios with stable lake area, highlighting the substantial role of lake carbon burial in shaping the future global carbon budget. -
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Li Y., Zhang X., Zhang Z., et al. (2025). Global lake carbon burial from endorheic zones since the Last Glacial Maximum and the future projection. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100132. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100132
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Li Y., Zhang X., Zhang Z., et al. (2025). Global lake carbon burial from endorheic zones since the Last Glacial Maximum and the future projection. The Innovation Geoscience 3:100132. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100132
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Figure 1.
Overall research framework.
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Figure 2.
Spatial distributions of mean organic carbon burial rates (OCAR), inorganic carbon burial rates (ICAR), and total carbon burial rates (TCAR) (g/m2/yr) in global closed-basin lakes during the Holocene (A-C) and Last Deglaciation (D-F).
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Figure 3.
Scatterplots illustrating correlations between lake organic carbon burial rates (OCAR; left column) and inorganic carbon burial rates (ICAR; right column) (g/m2/yr) with altitude, temperature, precipitation, and lake area in global closed basins
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Figure 4.
Temporal variations in total organic carbon (TOC) and total inorganic carbon (TIC) content, as well as organic carbon burial rates (OCAR) and inorganic carbon burial rates (ICAR), in lake sediments from global closed basins since the LGM
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Figure 5.
Lake level changes in global closed basins, expressed as differences between the MH and LGM (a) and between the MCA and LIA (b)
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Figure 6.
Lake evolution pattern and area calculation results
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Figure 7.
Temporal variations in Lake carbon burial in westerlies-controlled closed basins, monsoon-influenced closed basins and global closed basins since the LGM
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Figure 8.
Future hydroclimate and carbon burial changes
