Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic variability on East Asian summer monsoon in warming climate

Shangfeng Chen; Wen Chen; Renguang Wu; Shang-Ping Xie; Chunzai Wang; Sang-Wook Yeh; Zhibiao Wang; Yuqiong Zheng; Linye Song

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100207

The Innovation Geoscience > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 2 > 100207

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Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic variability on East Asian summer monsoon in warming climate

1.
State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application & Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences & Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Monsoon and Climate Disasters, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
3.
School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
4.
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0206, USA
5.
State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
6.
Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, South Korea
7.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China

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Corresponding authors: chenshangfeng@mail.iap.ac.cn (S.C.); chenwen-dq@ynu.edu.cn (W.C.); renguang@zju.edu.cn (R.W.)
Received Date: September 12, 2025

Accepted Date: March 03, 2026

Published Online: March 10, 2026

The Innovation Geoscience 4(2), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100207 | Cite this article

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PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Spring North tropical Atlantic (SNTA) sea surface temperature (SST) variability enhances in a warming climate.
  
  Larger SNTA SST variability has greater impacts on East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) via Kelvin wave response.
  
  Wetter tropical Pacific in a warming climate also amplifies SNTA SST impact on EASM via Rossby wave response.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

The spring North tropical Atlantic (SNTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies act as a critical precursor to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian climate variability. However, how the influence of SNTA SST on the EASM changes in a warming climate remains unclear. Here, using multiple climate model simulations, we demonstrate a significant intensification of the impact of SNTA SST on EASM and East Asian climate under greenhouse warming. In a warmer climate, atmospheric and precipitation responses over East Asia to SNTA SST anomalies are remarkably amplified, contributing to a higher frequency of extreme EASM events following SNTA SST anomalies. Greenhouse warming increases SNTA SST variability, which enhances the response of tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies via atmospheric teleconnection, thereby strengthening the impact on EASM through the stimulation of anomalous anticyclone over tropical western North Pacific. Meanwhile, a wetter tropical Pacific mean state in a warmer climate further amplifies the influence of SNTA SST-induced tropical central Pacific SST anomalies on the EASM. Our findings suggest that under continued greenhouse warming, the EASM will be increasingly modulated by SNTA SST, providing an opportunity to improve the predictability of East Asian climate.
- Tropical Atlantic /
- Sea surface temperature /
- East Asian Summer Monsoon /
- Global warming

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REFERENCES

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Chen S., Chen W., Wu R., et al. (2026). Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic variability on East Asian summer monsoon in warming climate. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100207. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100207

Chen S., Chen W., Wu R., et al. (2026). Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic variability on East Asian summer monsoon in warming climate. The Innovation Geoscience 4:100207. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100207

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Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic variability on East Asian summer monsoon in warming climate

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