Rising PM2.5 variability fuels mortality from pollution extremes

Jianyu Deng; Peng Zhou; Jinting Guo; Jingyi Wu; Pengfei Li; Tao Xue

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-med.2026.100238

The Innovation Medicine > 2026 Vol. 4 > No. 3 > 100238

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Rising PM_2.5 variability fuels mortality from pollution extremes

1.
Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health / Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China
2.
Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou 311215, China
3.
School of Nursing, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China
4.
National Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University/Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
5.
Ministry of Ecology and Environment Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Exposure and Health Risk Management, Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

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Corresponding authors: pfli@bjmu.edu.cn (P.L.); txue@hsc.pku.edu.cn (T.X.)
Received Date: March 06, 2026

Accepted Date: July 14, 2026

Published Online: July 15, 2026

The Innovation Medicine 4(3), https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-med.2026.100238 | Cite this article

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PUBLIC SUMMARY

PUBLIC SUMMARY
1. Growing PM_2.5 variability across regions triggers extreme pollution and endangers public health.
  
  A new method was developed for global evidence synthesis of non-linear health risks.
  
  Short-term exposure to PM_2.5 causes over 670,000 deaths globally each year.
  
  Early warning systems are crucial to mitigate health impacts from extreme air pollution peaks.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is a leading cause of the global mortality burden, but public health risks from short-term fluctuations, in addition to long-term exposure, have been insufficiently studied. Potentially influenced by climate change, the daily variability of PM_2.5 has significantly increased over the past 60 years, particularly in densely populated regions of East Asia, South Asia, and western North America. To quantify the short-term mortality burden exacerbated by this growing variability, we developed a novel method, the Meta-Regression of Distributional Derivatives (MR-ODDs), to construct nonlinear exposure-response relationships from published summary statistics without requiring individual-level data. Using this approach, we estimate that an average of 672,867 (95% CI: 579,452–740,680) deaths per year globally were attributable to short-term PM_2.5 exposure between 2000 and 2023. The mortality burden is especially pronounced in regions where intensifying climate variability drives more frequent extreme pollution events. Western North America, in particular, has emerged as the region with the fastest-rising risk from such events. These findings indicate that extreme pollution events pose a new and growing threat to global public health, demanding a shift in policy from managing annual average concentrations to focusing on early warning and intervention for extreme pollution peaks.

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Deng J., Zhou P., Guo J., et al. (2026). Rising PM2.5 variability fuels mortality from pollution extremes. The Innovation Medicine 4:100238. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-med.2026.100238

Deng J., Zhou P., Guo J., et al. (2026). Rising PM_2.5 variability fuels mortality from pollution extremes. The Innovation Medicine 4:100238. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-med.2026.100238

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Rising PM_2.5 variability fuels mortality from pollution extremes

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