Assessing socioeconomic risks of climate change through integrated modelling
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PUBLIC SUMMARY
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Incorporate key elements of integrated assessment modelling into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s framework of climate change risks.
Investigate the integrated assessment tools for climate risks, highlighting their modelling features, scientific foundations, limitations and future directions.
Identify key modelling challenges: uncertainty, climate damage monetization, long-term economic modelling, high-resolution climate extremes, and adaptation.
Outline pathways to enhance models by bridging integrated assessment models (IAMs) and empirical models.
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ABSTRACT
Climate change poses significant socio-economic risks, necessitating integrated assessment modelling that bridges natural and socioeconomic systems to identify and manage climate risks. However, research on key components of integrated assessment frameworks remains fragmented across disciplines, lacking explicit integration with the theoretical framework of climate change risk. This hinders the practical application of integrated assessment approaches in climate risk management. In this narrative review, we synthesize key elements of integrated assessment modelling—climate-related scenarios, climate simulations, climate impacts and damages, and uncertainties—within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s risk framework, defined by hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We examine how these elements are represented in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and empirical approaches, highlighting their modelling features and scientific foundations. We identify critical challenges in current research, including (1) the treatment of uncertainty, (2) monetization of climate damages, (3) representation of long-term economic impacts, and (4) incorporation of high-resolution climate extremes and adaptation dynamics. We propose that addressing these gaps requires bridging IAMs and empirical methods to improve multi-model integration, economic characterization, and the understanding of climate–economy interactions across spatial and temporal scales. -
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Chang J., Mi Z., Yu B., et al. (2026). Assessing socioeconomic risks of climate change through integrated modelling. The Innovation Energy 3:100140. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-energy.2026.100140
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Chang J., Mi Z., Yu B., et al. (2026). Assessing socioeconomic risks of climate change through integrated modelling. The Innovation Energy 3:100140. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-energy.2026.100140
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Figure 1.
IPCC’s conceptual framework of climate change risks (adapted from IPCC28).
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Figure 2.
Integrated assessment framework of climate change risks
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Figure 3.
Construction process of climate mitigation scenarios
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Figure 4.
The persistence of the climate impacts on GDP. It is assumed that the impact of temperature on GDP remains identical in both the level effect and growth effect within the same period.148
